The Western Conference Final is here and the Colorado Avalanche are staring down what might be their toughest playoff test yet: the Vegas Golden Knights. I gathered some of the top voices covering the Avalanche to break down the matchup, from Vegas’ dangerous depth and championship experience to Colorado’s speed, star power, and potential X-factors. Here’s how Evan Rawal, Aarif Deen, Jesse Montano, and myself see the series unfolding.
| Reporter | Prediction |
|---|---|
| Evan Rawal | Avs in 6 |
| Aarif Deen | Avs in 5 |
| Jesse Montano | Avs in 6 |
| Meghan Angley | Avs in 6 |
Evan Rawal, Denver Gazette
Prediction: Avs in 6
“I think they’re going to have to go back to Vegas again and win there.”
Initial thoughts and expectation: “This is their toughest matchup because, like Jared (Bednar) just talked about: centers. They have centers.
Minnesota didn’t, LA didn’t, and you win with depth down the middle. So, this is going to be a tough matchup because of that. Brock (Nelson) hasn’t done a lot offensively. If (MacKinnon) and Eichel are going to kind of counter each other, the Avs are going to need more down the middle, so it’s going to make it a little bit tougher here.
This is a good Vegas team. They had good underlying numbers all year. It’s just that their goaltending was terrible, and now Carter Hart seems to have found his game. The Avs are going to have to get to Carter Hart because that was their weakness all year, and you have to see if you can find a way to exploit it.”
What makes Vegas dangerous: “They have high-end skill that maybe the previous teams didn’t that have been here before and (have) done this. Jack Eichel is an elite center – he might be the best center that they face all postseason. He’s a guy that you got to worry about. If Mark Stone comes back, he’s a guy who always seems to give this team trouble because he’s always the smartest guy on the ice.
Now you’ve got Mitch Marner who has figured it out. He’s out of Toronto and all of a sudden it’s like, ‘Oh wait, he’s just a really good player,’ and it seems to be really working for him. And then you got guys like Dorofeyev who’s a lot like Burakovsky – he doesn’t need any room. He can just shoot and score.
So they’ve got some good role players as well. It’s going to be a tough matchup because they have a good top-six, bottom-six setup that the Avs are going to have to counter.”
Biggest learning lesson from the Minnesota series: “It’s that they can hang physically with some of these teams that are going to try to push them around.
That’s what they’ve learned from both these series because I don’t think that’s going to change with Vegas. They’ve got guys that want to push teams around, and the Avs have shown that they’re okay with it. They’re not a small team, and they can fight back if they have to. Obviously health is going to matter in that department, but the Avs have shown that they’re not going to be afraid to throw their bodies around as well.”
Avs’ edge: “Their speed. It’s not that Vegas is a slow team, but I would say that the Avs maybe just have a little bit more speed, and that’s something they can separate in a game like that… especially that fourth line. The fourth lines are built a little bit differently, whereas Vegas is more size. It’s a lot like how Minnesota was built.”
Colorado’s X-factor: Ross Colton.
“Ross was an X-factor in that second round, whereas they talk all the time about how he’s a streaky player, and if he’s getting hot now, then that’s what you want. He seems to have found the physical edge, he’s got some confidence, he seems to play well with Brock (Nelson) – it seems like something works there.
We’ve talked about Nic Roy this whole time, he just keeps being an X-factor, and his size in a series like this is just going to come in handy again.”
Aarif Deen, Colorado Hockey Now
Prediction: Avs in 5
“I’m going to go out on a limb, and I think a lot of people are probably saying Avalanche in 6, so I’m going to make it fun and exciting and say Avalanche in 5, just to be different, but it’s going to be a hard 5.”
Initial thoughts and expectation: “This matchup makes the most sense. The Vegas that won 39 regular season games, is not the Vegas the Avs are playing. They’ve figured out who they are. They’ve started to play to their identity.
They have a new head coach. They have their guys back from injury. They’re healthy. They’re rolling. These are the top two teams in the Western Conference.
They were the best in the first and second rounds. They seem to be the two hottest teams coming in. This is going to be the class of the West, and rightfully so.”
What makes Vegas dangerous: “They have the experience. The things that make them dangerous are the same things that make the Avalanche dangerous.
They have the experience: half of their team has won a Stanley Cup. The Avalanche have ten guys that have won, and then you have a whole bunch of other Stanley Cup finalists like Brent Burns, Brett Kulak three-times – guys like that, that’s number one.
Number two is they have the center depth. They’re rolling with William Karlsson back, they have Eichel, Karlsson, Hertl, and then Dowd who they got at the deadline.
They kind of mirror the Avalanche’s center depth with MacKinnon, Nelson, Kadri, and Jack Drury.
Number three is just depth in general. They have guys on every line that can produce. Brett Howden is playing a large role, and that’s a guy that we didn’t expect. And on the Avs’ side, you have Nic Roy who’s got three goals and three assists.
You have Jack Drury who’s got a couple goals, Parker Kelly who’s got a couple goals, Nazem Kadri on the power play – seemingly all of his points come there. They both have guys in different parts of the lineup that are clicking and producing.”
Biggest learning lesson from the Minnesota series: “They have to make sure that they do not let up in any game at any time against any team. It was the same thing against the Los Angeles Kings. There was a game that was 0-0 till late in the third period, and as soon as Panarin made it 1-0, the Avs had to fight back and make it 1-1, and they did.
But you don’t want to go back to that well every single time. Going into Game 5, the entire chatter for three days was, can the Avalanche close out a series at home?
And they laid an absolute egg in the first period. They were able to make the comeback, they won the game in overtime. It was miraculous, it was exciting, it was fun. But, you don’t want to do that against the Vegas Golden Knights. You don’t want to fall behind.
That’s the biggest piece of humble pie I would say that they got, while also noting that they are 8-1. They’ve only lost one game. It’s the first time in franchise history they’ve done that. They have the confidence to come back… But you have to balance that against a team like Vegas that has the center depth and the depth down the lineup in general. You need to make sure that you’re not allowing that to happen.”
Avs’ Edge: “The star power at the top. The biggest difference between the Avalanche and Golden Knights, and Bednar mentioned that MacKinnon has always had a better matchup against Jack Eichel, is both teams have depth and you want your depth to be better than their depth. You want your goaltending to be better than their goaltending.
But it’s the top of the lineup, the star power. If your top stars are giving you more than their top stars are, that’s going to be the difference because when you take the depth as a whole… you’re probably going to get almost an even matchup between the two clubs.
Can Marty Necas continue to generate? Can Nazem Kadri And Cale Makar do the thing on the power play? Can Gabe Landeskog chip in with goals? It’s if your top guys beat their top guys, that’s going to be the biggest difference, assuming that both goalies continue to play respectably well and there’s no big injuries.”
Colorado’s X-factor: Nic Roy.
“Roy’s had a great playoffs. He has been better than advertised. And then you add in the fact that he’s playing his former team.
It’s going to be a very, very big help. He’s been on quite a few of those Western Conference Final runs with the Vegas Golden Knights… so that’s going to be a big difference.
He’s going to be highly motivated. That’s a team that traded him. Given the fact that as the series goes on, as those adjustments need to be made, if Brock Nelson isn’t producing, if Nazem Kadri isn’t producing, to have him as an X-factor and also a guy that you can shift to center if needed… I think is also going to be a big help.”
Jesse Montano, Guerilla Sports
Prediction: Avs in 6
“Vegas is going to give you a good push. I could even see this finally being a series where they do break through after 2-2. The first couple games are going to be a different beast with how experienced this Vegas team is.”
Initial thoughts and expectation: “As I’ve watched Vegas go through this postseason… I think that this series, Colorado-Vegas, is going to be Colorado’s toughest challenge because of the experience that Vegas has. They have a lot of Cup winners there, and they have not looked overwhelmed by the moment, which I thought both LA did when the Avs started to lean on them, and even Minnesota, for being a good team – they looked young.
And they looked like the Avs started to intimidate them a bit as that series went on and as the challenge got bigger. I don’t think you’re going to get that with Vegas. (Vegas) is a veteran group that’s going to give the Avs a different set of off-ice challenges… It’s going to provide a ‘see what you’re made of’ kind of test.”
What makes Vegas dangerous: “It’s the experience. This is a team that I’m surprised now looking back on where they finished in the regular season because you do have Jack Eichel who is one of the top centers in the league. This is a team that I think maybe surprises some people at how deep they are.
You go down their centers and maybe their center room isn’t as good as the Avs, but they’ve got quality depth there, better than what the Avs have seen to this point. They’ve got quality guys throughout their lineup in a way that is different than what the Avs have seen.”
Biggest learning lesson from the Minnesota series: “How to respond… the ability to slow down, catch your breath, get back into it. We heard a lot of that after Game 5, but it’s really easy to say that after you’ve come back and won. Just that lesson of, ‘Okay, we went down three and we didn’t panic.’
Vegas is a crazy building to go into. It’s loud. The fans are into it. You hear players say it can be hard to communicate at times. Having gone through a game where they let the crowd power Minnesota to the point where the Avs couldn’t get back in it, and then seeing the way they responded in Minnesota in Game 4, after going down 3-0 (in Game 5) – that ability to stay calm, work through it. You’re going to get challenges in the playoffs. Having to go through that a couple times in a way that they really didn’t against LA, they’re going to need to lean on staying calm.”
Avs’ edge: “We talked a lot in the last series about the depth, ‘The depth has to do it. The depth will help you separate.’ I actually think it’s the opposite in this one. Jack Eichel is a really good player. Mitch Marner is playing really well right now.
They don’t have a Cale Makar, they don’t have a Nathan MacKinnon. And if Marty Necas is playing at that level, that’s going to be just a tough line to contain. The Avs are dealing with injuries of their own, but you don’t know what the status is of Mark Stone on the other side. That’s going to be a guy that is going to try to shut those guys down.
So as much as it’s been the depth to this point, and I think they’ll need to play a role, the real advantage the Avs have in this series is: you have the two best players, and the two best players are going to have to be what separates this group.”
Colorado’s X-factor: Scott Wedgewood.
“In net, the Avs are going to need the best performance they’ve gotten so far.
Scott was good in Round 1. I think both goalies gave you quality at different times in Round 2. The other reason why I think it could be an X-factor is because I think Carter Hart is an X-factor in terms of: if the Avs can get to him and can fill the net, that’s going to be hard for Vegas to respond. That’s where it’s going to shift, ‘Okay, well, what can Scott Wedgewood do?’
Whoever the goalie is, you can’t get into the 9-6 stuff again. So if the Avs are going to fill the net, you’re going to need your goalie to be good. The Avs need a good goaltending series.”
Meghan Angley, Guerilla Sports
Prediction: Avs in 6
Avs close on the road. Team dinner is on Martin Necas at Carbone just like old times.
Initial thoughts and expectations: Vegas seems to grow stronger the deeper they go. Playoff hockey fuels them. Colorado is resilient and more dimensional than they’ve been given credit for. Many have looked at the Presidents’ Trophy winners as the charmed ones: a high-flying, high-octane, high-wire act. The Avs have been rock solid defensively, their goaltending has stepped up as needed, their depth has surpassed expectations, and their top players have had timely moments. Vegas’ experience and depth will make them a worthy foe, but Colorado’s fate is in their own hands.
What makes Vegas dangerous: Like my colleagues said, it’s their experience. Their familiarity with pressure makes them battle-tested. They’re less likely to make mistakes which means the Avs will have to truly earn their chances. Eichel is a really complete, big game player and Mitch Marner is so hot right now. Tomas Hertl as a scoring threat from deeper in the lineup means that Colorado can’t discount them on any given shift. Perhaps what will be most taxing is not just the physical toll of a Conference Final, but the mental load of needing to be dialed in every second.
Biggest learning lesson from the Minnesota series: The Avs demonstrated a chameleonic way of shaping their game to their opponent through two rounds: they stayed patient in the face of a tight defensive LA team and locked it down in their own right, then they upped their physicality as needed against Minnesota and stayed on them to the point of exhaustion.
Whether it was digging in for the Game 5 comeback or issuing big responses in Game 2 and Game 4, the Avs’ strength is in their versatility. They understand how to maintain the core parts of their identity alongside allowing room to step into certain aspects of their game to best match their opponent. It’s when they step outside their structure – which is an issue of trust, not skill – that mistakes get made. The other lesson should be that they can win a couple different ways: the path to winning isn’t linear or one of instant gratification.
The Avs are truly impressive when they show patience in the process.
Avs’ edge: Team speed. Starting from their backend, Colorado has the ability to generate quality chances off a quick strike attack using their speed. Though they can play a muck and grind game as well – and I suspect so much of this series will be just that – seizing moments of opportunity off the rush will make them very dangerous.
Sam Malinski’s three-point game against Vegas in the regular season happened because the Avs’ as a five-man unit can be a lot to contain shift by shift with mobile D that can activate. The Avs are a handful when everyone poses a scoring threat.
Colorado’s X-factor: Martin Necas.
Is a 100-point player really an X-factor? Despite racking up the points (11 points in nine games), Necas has been held to just one goal in the playoffs. He took steps in the right direction by the end of the Minnesota series in terms of balancing his shutdown game with his skill, and he had three goals and three assists against Vegas in the regular season. Necas can be an offensive key to break through Vegas’ heavy, physical D that will make chances in the interior harder to come by. Not only do I want to see him shoot, I want to see him skate pucks to the inside because he is really good in traffic. Vegas can take away shooting/passing lanes, but Necas is a shifty guy that can do so much more with so little room.
